Recounts and random chance - an election in numbers

Last Thursday's Shropshire Council election was as fascinating as it was unpredictable.

Nobody I spoke with before the election, including national party leader Nigel Farage, expected Reform UK to win as many seats as they did in the county.

On the other hand, though we were almost certain the Conservatives would lose control at this election, their bone-crunching fall from grace took many by surprise.

Friday was a day of recounts, a Reform surge and random chance as the Liberal Democrats took charge, with one seat even decided through the electoral equivalent of drawing lots.

Here is the tale of Shropshire's election in numbers.

Some of the seats being contested were won by incredibly thin margins.

In fact, eight of the 74 seats on offer were decided by fewer than 20 votes each.

The Liberal Democrats won five seats with a grand total of just 34 votes, including Whitchurch South (9), The Strettons (1), St Oswald (8), and Cheswardine (15).

Bridgnorth South and Alveley was finally won by the Lib Dems following three recounts.

Colin Taylor and Reform UK's Karen Webb-James each received 508 votes, but there could be only one winner.

The vote was decided by two ballot papers being put back into a ballot box and one randomly taken out. Mr Taylor won the contest and took the seat by an extra vote.

The five narrowly-won Lib Dem seats gave the group their majority and overall control of the council.

All six Conservatives standing for re-election who were part of the council's previous leadership team, or cabinet, lost their seats.

Former deputy leader Ian Nellins, who was the face of unpopular decisions like the £56 garden waste charge and the now-cancelled tip booking system, came third in Market Drayton North with 199 votes, behind Reform UK and the Lib Dems.

The councillor in charge of finance, Gwilym Butler, who oversaw cuts totalling more than £100m in the last few years, also lost his seat in Cleobury Mortimer.

He said he was disappointed not to have been re-elected after years of hard work, but proud to have avoided bankruptcy for the authority.

The councillor who championed the controversial northern Shrewsbury bypass, the North West Relief Road, lost Burnell to the Lib Dems.

Four other Cabinet members, including leader Lezley Picton, did not stand for re-election.

Seasoned councillor Heather Kidd won the largest vote of any councillor up for election in England last Thursday, according to the Liberal Democrats.

Kidd, who will officially become the new council leader later this month, took 71% of the vote in Chirbury and Worthen.

In 2021 she received 84%.

Fellow party councillor Ruth Houghton, who won Bishop's Castle, was a close second with 70%.

Reform UK's success at last week's election cannot be overstated.

The party stood candidates in all 74 seats, won 16 of them and officially became the party in opposition. In total, the group received 27,732 votes, which is around 27% of the vote share.

In 2021, the party fielded just two candidates and won 97 votes between them.

Reform's victory saw the group take chunks out of both the Labour and Conservative groups.

Labour received almost 11,000 fewer votes, resulting in their number of councillors dropping from nine to four.

Meanwhile, support for the Tory group fell by 60%, from 51,442 in 2021 to 20,118.

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