'God forbid we should end up like Ukraine': Belarusians indifferent to election

There are times in history when countries are gripped by election fever.

January 2025 in Belarus is not one of them.

Drive around Minsk and you'll see no big billboards promoting the portraits of candidates.

There is little campaigning.

The grey skies and sleet of a Belarusian winter add to an overriding sense of inactivity.

And inevitability.

The outcome of the 2025 presidential election is not in doubt. Alexander Lukashenko, once dubbed "Europe's last dictator," who has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for more than 30 years, will be declared the winner and secure a seventh term in office.

His supporters call it an exercise in "Belarusian democracy". His opponents reject the process as "a farce".

Even Mr Lukashenko himself claims to lack interest in the process.

"I'm not following the election campaign. I've got no time," the Belarusian leader told workers at the Minsk Automobile Plant this week.

The workers presented him with a gift: an axe for chopping wood.

"I'll try it out before the election," promised Mr Lukashenko, to rapturous applause.

Four-and-a-half years ago, at a different enterprise, the leader of Belarus received a much cooler reception.

One week after the 2020 presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko visited the Minsk Wheels Tractor Plant. Leaked video showed him being jeered and heckled by workers. They shouted '"Go away! Go away!".

In 2020 the official election result – of 80% for Mr Lukashenko - had sparked anger and huge protests across the country. Belarusians poured onto the streets to accuse their leader of stealing their votes and the election.

In the brutal police crackdown that followed, thousands of anti-government protesters and critics were arrested. Eventually the wave of repression extinguished the protests and, with help from Russia, Mr Lukashenko clung to power.

The UK, the European Union and the United States refuse to recognise him as the legitimate president of Belarus.

Alexander Lukashenko's staunchest opponents (and potential rivals) are either in prison or have been forced into exile.

That is why this week the European Parliament passed a resolution calling on the EU to reject the upcoming presidential election as "a sham" and pointing out that the election campaign has been taking place "in an environment of severe repression which fails to meet even the minimum standards for democratic elections".

I remember interviewing Alexander Lukashenko last October, on the day the date of the presidential election was announced.

"How can these elections be free and democratic if the leaders of the opposition are in prison or abroad?" I asked.

"Do you actually know who the leaders of the opposition are?" Mr Lukashenko hit back.

"An opposition is a group of people who should serve the interests, at the very least, of a small number of people in the country. Where are these leaders you speak of? Wake up!"

Alexander Lukashenko is not the sole candidate. There are four others. But they seem more like spoilers, than serious challengers.

I drive four hours from Minsk to meet one of them. Sergei Syrankov is the leader of the Communist Party of Belarus. In the town of Vitebsk I sit in on one of his campaign events. In a large hall Mr Syrankov addresses a small audience, flanked by his party's emblem, the hammer and sickle.

His campaign slogan is unusual to say the least: "Not instead of, but together with Lukashenko!"

He is a presidential candidate who openly backs his opponent.

"There is no alternative to Alexander Lukashenko as the leader of our country," Mr Syrankov tells me. "So, we are taking part in the election with the president's team."

"Why do you think there is no alternative?" I ask.

"Because Lukashenko is a man of the people, a man of the soil, who has done everything to make sure we don't have the kind of chaos they have in Ukraine."

"You're fighting for power yourself, but you support another candidate. That is…unusual," I suggest.

"I am certain that Alexander Lukashenko will win a thumping victory. But even if he wins and I don't, the Communists will be the winners," responds Mr Syrankov.

"The main Communist in our country is our head of state. Lukashenko still has his old membership card from the days of the Soviet Communist Party."

Also on the ballot is Oleg Gaidukevich, leader of the right-wing Liberal-Democratic Party of Belarus. He, too, isn't running to win.

"If anyone dares to suggest the outcome of the election isn't known, he's a liar," Mr Gaidukevich tells me.

"It's obvious that Lukashenko will win. He has a massive rating….We're going to battle to strengthen our positions and prepare for the next election."

Mr Lukashenko's critics reject the assertion that his popularity is "massive". But there is no doubt he does have support.

On the edge of Vitebsk is the little town of Oktyabrskaya. Talking to people there I detect concern that a change of leader may spark instability.

"I want a stable salary, stability in the country," welder Sergei tells me. "Other candidates make promises, but might not keep them. I want to keep what I've got."

"The situation today is very tense," says Zenaida. "Maybe there are other people worthy of power. But by the time a younger leader gets his feet under the desk, makes those important connections with with other countries, and with his own people that will take a long time.

"God forbid we should end up like Ukraine."

In Belarus today there is fear of instability, fear of the unknown, and fear of the government. All work in Alexander Lukashenko's favour.