Northern Ireland population to 'peak in 2033'

Northern Ireland's population is projected to peak at 1.95m in 2033 before starting to decline, a report by the official statistics agency suggests.

The projection from the NI Statistics and Research Agency says the population will start falling due to a low birth rate.

It suggests that by 2031 there will be more annual deaths than births and that trend will then continue.

Any population increase after 2031 would solely be due to migration.

The projection is based on current assumptions about birth and death rates and migration.

Overall it projects the NI population to increase by just 1.1% between 2022 and 2047.

That is much lower than the other parts of the UK, mainly based on the assumption that migration to NI will continue at the current relatively low rate.

The projections also point to a rapidly aging society with the number of pensioners expected to outnumber children by the middle of 2027.

The 'working age' population, meaning people aged 16 - 64, is projected to start falling by the middle of 2028.

The projection suggests the over 65s will be more than one in four of the population by 2047 compared to about one in six today.

Children, defined as people under 15, are projected to fall from, just over one in five of the population in 2022 to less than one in six by 2047.

Among the constituent parts of the UK Northern Ireland is projected to have the largest decrease in the population of children and largest increase in the pension age population.

The projections are not intended to act as a forecast and the underpinning assumptions can change, for example if the government was to change its migration policy.