What next as council results will be incomplete?

In a county where the margins for victory are as fine as they come, the election for Nottinghamshire County Council has always been tough to call.

The Conservatives, having been in charge since 2017, only need to lose one seat and they would lose overall control of the council.

And now as polling day looms, we know that the results, as well as being unpredictable, will be incomplete.

This is because the death of Karen Seymour, a candidate standing in Mansfield North, has led to the election for that council division being delayed.

No date has been set for the subsequent by-election, but it is likely it will be several weeks after polling day proper on 1 May.

The division is represented by two council seats, and in an election that could be incredibly close, two seats could make all the difference.

Recent years have taught us that political predictions, even when made with confidence, should be taken with a fistful of salt.

The reality is absolutely anything is possible at this election, and things become all the more unpredictable if turnout is low.

There are so many challengers and variables in a county like Nottinghamshire, that the vote could be split in all sorts of different directions, meaning seats can end up being won with a comparatively small share of the vote.

In other words, there could be some real surprises.

Take that seat-by-seat uncertainty and apply it across a council with 66 seats and you're left with little more than guesswork.

But with all that said, when I've spoken to party sources and candidates throughout this campaign, the most commonly-held expectation has been for no party to win enough seats for a majority.

A hung council is far from unprecedented in Nottinghamshire.

It happened as recently as 2017 when the Conservatives were the largest party but short of a majority.

Back then, they partnered with councillors from the Mansfield Independent Forum to form an administration.

If we're in that sort of situation again when results come in on Friday, we'd be set for days or weeks of talks between parties trying to strike a deal, either for a formal coalition or a looser agreement.

Those talks tend to be a bit messy, with different demands and counter-demands being thrown around.

They could be messier still with a by-election still to be fought.

Let me paint you a picture - but I stress it is a hypothetical one.

The magic number for control of the county council is 34 seats.

What if one party ends Friday with 32 seats? They're very nearly there but they need those two seats in Mansfield North to get over the line, and suddenly that by-election is decisive.

Another scenario - what if one party gets 24 seats and another gets eight?

Again, they're within touching distance of the number for an administration between them, but how do they conduct coalition talks when they don't know exactly how many seats each has?

And how do those two parties contest that by-election? Would one stand aside to allow the other a better chance of getting the numbers between them?

These are questions that are enough to make your head spin, but they are questions which those closely involved in this election are now asking themselves.

It could be a moot point - never rule out someone getting enough seats at the first time of asking.

I have been assured that, in any eventuality, council services won't be disrupted.

In a statement, the council's chief executive Adrian Smith said: "As is standard practice in the run-up to an election, the council has plans in place to ensure the continued smooth running of council services."

But it is perhaps a mark of what a politically volatile area Nottinghamshire is that, on the eve of polling day, there is even more uncertainty than usual.

You can see who is standing for election in your area here.

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